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Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes : a case study of Malayer vineyard region
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Chatrabgoun, O., Karimi, R., Daneshkhah, A., Abolfathi, Soroush, Nouri, H. and Esmaeilbeigi, M. (2020) Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes : a case study of Malayer vineyard region. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295 . 108150. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150 ISSN 0168-1923.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150
Abstract
Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vine-yards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter’s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully vali-dated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > QA Mathematics S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Engineering > Engineering | ||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Grapes -- Frost protection, Frost hazard, Frost hazard -- Risk assessment, Vineyards, Copulas (Mathematical statistics) | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0168-1923 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | 15 December 2020 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 295 | ||||||||
| Article Number: | 108150 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 September 2020 | ||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 11 September 2021 | ||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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