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Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo
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Aliee, Maryam, Castaño, Soledad, Davis, Christopher N., Patel, Swati, Miaka, Erick Mwamba, Spencer, Simon E. F., Keeling, Matt J., Chitnis, Nakul and Rock, Kat S. (2021) Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 115 (3). pp. 245-252. trab019. doi:10.1093/trstmh/trab019 ISSN 0035-9203.
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WRAP-Predicting-COVID-19-interruptions-transmission-gambiense-human-African-trypanosomiasis-Cngo-2021.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (3150Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trab019
Abstract
Many control programmes against neglected tropical diseases have been interrupted due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including those that rely on active case finding. In this study we focus on gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), where active screening was suspended in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the pandemic. We use two independent mathematical models to predict the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission and reporting and achievement of the 2030 elimination of transmission (EOT) goal for gHAT in two moderate-risk regions of the DRC. We consider different interruption scenarios, including reduced passive surveillance in fixed health facilities, and whether this suspension lasts until the end of 2020 or 2021. Our models predict an increase in the number of new infections in the interruption period only if both active screening and passive surveillance were suspended, and with a slowed reduction—but no increase—if passive surveillance remains fully functional. In all scenarios, the EOT may be slightly pushed back if no mitigation, such as increased screening coverage, is put in place. However, we emphasise that the biggest challenge will remain in the higher-prevalence regions where EOT is already predicted to be behind schedule without interruptions unless interventions are bolstered.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Congo (Democratic Republic), African trypanosomiasis -- Congo (Democratic Republic), African trypanosomiasis -- Transmission -- Mathematical models -- Congo (Democratic Republic), African trypanosomiasis -- Prevention | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene | |||||||||
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 0035-9203 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | March 2021 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 115 | |||||||||
| Number: | 3 | |||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 245-252 | |||||||||
| Article Number: | trab019 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1093/trstmh/trab019 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
| Copyright Holders: | © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 22 February 2021 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 23 February 2021 | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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