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Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo

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Aliee, Maryam, Castaño, Soledad, Davis, Christopher N., Patel, Swati, Miaka, Erick Mwamba, Spencer, Simon E. F., Keeling, Matt J., Chitnis, Nakul and Rock, Kat S. (2021) Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 115 (3). pp. 245-252. trab019. doi:10.1093/trstmh/trab019 ISSN 0035-9203.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trab019

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Abstract

Many control programmes against neglected tropical diseases have been interrupted due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including those that rely on active case finding. In this study we focus on gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), where active screening was suspended in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the pandemic. We use two independent mathematical models to predict the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission and reporting and achievement of the 2030 elimination of transmission (EOT) goal for gHAT in two moderate-risk regions of the DRC. We consider different interruption scenarios, including reduced passive surveillance in fixed health facilities, and whether this suspension lasts until the end of 2020 or 2021. Our models predict an increase in the number of new infections in the interruption period only if both active screening and passive surveillance were suspended, and with a slowed reduction—but no increase—if passive surveillance remains fully functional. In all scenarios, the EOT may be slightly pushed back if no mitigation, such as increased screening coverage, is put in place. However, we emphasise that the biggest challenge will remain in the higher-prevalence regions where EOT is already predicted to be behind schedule without interruptions unless interventions are bolstered.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Congo (Democratic Republic), African trypanosomiasis -- Congo (Democratic Republic), African trypanosomiasis -- Transmission -- Mathematical models -- Congo (Democratic Republic), African trypanosomiasis -- Prevention
Journal or Publication Title: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISSN: 0035-9203
Official Date: March 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
March 2021Published
19 February 2021Available
19 January 2021Accepted
Volume: 115
Number: 3
Page Range: pp. 245-252
Article Number: trab019
DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trab019
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Copyright Holders: © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Date of first compliant deposit: 22 February 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 23 February 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
OPP1184344Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
OPP1177824Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865

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