Watai, Yuki (2019) Japan’s incremental grand strategic shift in the 21st century : the cases of article 9 and ballistic missile defence through a neoclassical realist approach. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

This PhD thesis examines the development of Japan’s security policy between 2004 and 2018 using two cases relating to (1) the constitution and collective self-defence (CSD) and (2) Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD). This research aims to identify under what conditions Japan accelerates/decelerates its balancing behaviour and attempts to test a theory of neoclassical realism (NCR). The discrepancy between theoretical predictions and Japan’s actual behaviour is largely attributable to the dynamics of unit-level variables that are not yet captured theoretically in the constantly changing strategic environment. These unit-level variables include leaders, the constitution, bureaucrats, the public and socio-economic groups. This research also aims to pit these variables against each other to identify the relative weight of each with regard to respective explanatory powers. The current literature on realism and constructivism often fails to examine the issues regarding ‘to what extent Japan will remilitarise’, ‘what has accelerated/decelerated this process’ and ‘the relationship between external and internal political influence’. The two cases presented in this thesis help highlight two policy-making processes: legal security capacity and military capability. The often unparalleled development of these two security policy areas enables us to examine Japan’s shift in grand strategic adjustment. This thesis concludes that although Japan has not behaved as realists predicted, since the 2000s its behaviour has increasingly shifted from a defensive realist grand strategy to an offensive realist one. Japan has not just ‘remilitarised’ in an incremental, linear manner; its ‘velocity’ of upward trend has fluctuated constantly depending on the unit-level variables within the framework of NCR. In the early 2000s, Japan adopted a defensive realist type of behaviour that focused primarily on enhancing its defence capabilities. Due to an aggravating strategic environment with ambitious leaders and domestic political stability since the 2010s, Japan has sought to project its larger influence through an attempted constitutional revision for full degree CSD and the potential possession of offensive capabilities in BMD. This thesis employs NCR and pre-defined intervening variables to examine under what conditions, why and when Japan shifts its grand strategy, and what factors trigger the shift to provide a more nuanced yet accurate interpretation of Japan’s behaviour.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	J Political Science > JQ Political institutions (Asia, Africa, Australia, Pacific Area, etc.) J Political Science > JZ International relations U Military Science > U Military Science (General)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	National security -- Japan -- History -- 21st century, Ballistic missile defenses -- Japan, Political realism
Official Date:	2 September 2019
Dates:	Date Event 2 September 2019 UNSPECIFIED
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Politics and International Studies
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Hughes, Christopher W. ; Kelly, Dominic, 1965-
Sponsors:	Nihon Gakusei Shien Kikō
Format of File:	pdf
Extent:	ix, 283 leaves : colour illustrations
Language:	eng

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