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Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections?

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Murr, Andreas (2021) Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections? Electoral Studies, 72 . 102342. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102342 ISSN 0261-3794.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102342

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Abstract

When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at most 12 months. Can we increase the lead time further, supposing we tolerate a small decrease in accuracy? Here, we develop a model with a lead time of more than 3 years. Our Party Leadership Model relies on the votes of MPs when selecting their party leader. We assess the forecasting quality of our model with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a before-the-fact forecast of the 2019 general election. Compared to both simple forecasting methods and other scientific forecasts, our model emerges as a leading contender. This result suggests that election forecasting may benefit from developing models with longer lead times, and that party leaders may influence election outcomes more than is usually thought.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Elections -- Great Britain, Political parties -- Great Britain, Great Britain -- Politics and government -- 21st century, Public opinion polls, Election forecasting -- Great Britain, Political campaigns -- Great Britain
Journal or Publication Title: Electoral Studies
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0261-3794
Official Date: August 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
August 2021Published
10 June 2021Available
30 April 2021Accepted
Volume: 72
Article Number: 102342
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102342
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Date of first compliant deposit: 5 May 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 10 December 2022
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