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Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population

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Crellen, Thomas, Pi, Li, Davis, Emma L., Pollington, Timothy M., Lucas, Tim C. D., Ayabina, Diepreye, Borlase, Anna, Toor, Jaspreet, Prem, Kiesha, Medley, Graham F., Klepac, Petra and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2021) Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0274 ISSN 0962-8436.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0274

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Abstract

The dynamics of immunity are crucial to understanding the long-term patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Several cases of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 have been documented 48–142 days after the initial infection and immunity to seasonal circulating coronaviruses is estimated to be shorter than 1 year. Using an age-structured, deterministic model, we explore potential immunity dynamics using contact data from the UK population.
In the scenario where immunity to SARS-CoV-2 lasts an average of three months for non-hospitalized individuals, a year for hospitalized individuals, and the effective reproduction number after lockdown ends is 1.2 (our worst-case scenario), we find that the secondary peak occurs in winter 2020 with a daily maximum of 387 000 infectious individuals and 125 000 daily new cases; threefold greater than in a scenario with permanent immunity. Our models suggest that longitudinal serological surveys to determine if immunity in the population is waning will be most informative when sampling takes place from the end of the lockdown in June until autumn 2020. After this period, the proportion of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is expected to increase due to the secondary wave.
Overall, our analysis presents considerations for policy makers on the longer-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and suggests that strategies designed to achieve herd immunity may lead to repeated waves of infection as immunity to reinfection is not permanent.
This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 (Please use QA76 Electronic Computers. Computer Science)
Q Science > QR Microbiology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Research Centres > Centre for Complexity Science
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences > Statistics and Epidemiology
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): COVID-19 (Disease) , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models -- Great Britain, Immunity -- Mathematical models -- Great Britain, Communicable diseases -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models -- Great Britain
Journal or Publication Title: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 0962-8436
Official Date: 19 July 2021
Dates:
DateEvent
19 July 2021Published
31 May 2021Available
6 January 2021Accepted
Volume: 376
Number: 1829
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0274
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Copyright Holders: © 2021 The Authors
Date of first compliant deposit: 2 June 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access: 3 June 2021
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:
Project/Grant IDRIOXX Funder NameFunder ID
215919/Z/19/ZWellcome Trusthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010269
OPP1184344Bill and Melinda Gates Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865
P/L015374/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
P/L015374/1[EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
P/L015374/1Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
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