The Library
Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries
Tools
Tools
Tools
Parisi, Andrea, Brand, Samuel, Hilton, Joe, Aziza, Rabia, Keeling, Matt J. and Nokes, D. James (2021) Spatially resolved simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in three European countries. PLOS Computational Biology, 17 (7). e1009090. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009090 ISSN 1553-7358.
|
PDF
WRAP-Spatially-resolved-simulations-spread-COVID-19-three-European-countries-2021.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (1653Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009090
Abstract
We explore the spatial and temporal spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus under containment measures in three European countries based on fits to data of the early outbreak. Using data from Spain and Italy, we estimate an age dependent infection fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2, as well as risks of hospitalization and intensive care admission. We use them in a model that simulates the dynamics of the virus using an age structured, spatially detailed agent based approach, that explicitly incorporates governmental interventions and changes in mobility and contact patterns occurred during the COVID-19 outbreak in each country. Our simulations reproduce several of the features of its spatio-temporal spread in the three countries studied. They show that containment measures combined with high density are responsible for the containment of cases within densely populated areas, and that spread to less densely populated areas occurred during the late stages of the first wave. The capability to reproduce observed features of the spatio-temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 makes this model a potential candidate for forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in other settings, and we recommend its application in low and lower-middle income countries which remain understudied.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine | ||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease) , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Forecasting, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission -- Europe, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission -- Simulation methods -- Europe | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | PLOS Computational Biology | ||||||
| Publisher: | Public Library of Science | ||||||
| ISSN: | 1553-7358 | ||||||
| Official Date: | 20 July 2021 | ||||||
| Dates: |
|
||||||
| Volume: | 17 | ||||||
| Number: | 7 | ||||||
| Article Number: | e1009090 | ||||||
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009090 | ||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 August 2021 | ||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 17 August 2021 | ||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
|
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
