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Proof and uncertainty in causal claims
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Barons, Martine J. and Wilkerson, Rachel L. (2018) Proof and uncertainty in causal claims. Exchanges: The Interdisciplinary Research Journal, 5 (2). pp. 72-89. doi:10.31273/eirj.v5i2.238 ISSN 2053-9665.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.31273/eirj.v5i2.238
Abstract
Causal questions drive scientific enquiry. From Hume to Granger, and Rubin to Pearl the history of science is full of examples of scientists testing new theories in an effort to uncover causal mechanisms. The difficulty of drawing causal conclusions from observational data has prompted developments in new methodologies, most notably in the area of graphical models. We explore the relationship between existing theories about causal mechanisms in a social science domain, new mathematical and statistical modelling methods, the role of mathematical proof and the importance of accounting for uncertainty. We show that, while the mathematical sciences rely on their modelling assumptions, dialogue with the social sciences calls for continual extension of these models. We show how changing model assumptions lead to innovative causal structures and more nuanced casual explanations. We review differing techniques for determining cause in different disciplines using causal theories from psychology, medicine, and economics.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BD Speculative Philosophy H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HA Statistics Q Science > QA Mathematics |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | |||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Causation -- Mathematical models, Bayesian statistical decision theory , Instrumental variables (Statistics) , Social sciences -- Statistical methods | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Exchanges: The Interdisciplinary Research Journal | |||||||||
| Publisher: | University of Warwick | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 2053-9665 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 6 July 2018 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 5 | |||||||||
| Number: | 2 | |||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 72-89 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.31273/eirj.v5i2.238 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 5 August 2021 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 6 August 2021 | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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