CMMID COVID-19 working group (Including: Davis, Emma L., Lucas, Tim C. D., Borlase, Anna, Pollington, Timothy M., Abbott, Sam, Ayabina, Diepreye, Crellen, Thomas, Hellewell, Joel, Pi, Li, Medley, Graham, Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre and Klepac, Petra). (2021) Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence. Nature Communications, 12 . 5412 . doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5 ISSN 2041-1723.

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Abstract

Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Research Centres > Centre for Complexity Science Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	COVID-19 (Disease), Contact tracing (Epidemiology) -- Data processing, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission - Prevention, Public health surveillance -- Computer programs
Journal or Publication Title:	Nature Communications
Publisher:	Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:	2041-1723
Official Date:	13 September 2021
Dates:	Date Event 13 September 2021 Published 18 August 2021 Accepted
Volume:	12
Article Number:	5412
DOI:	10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	19 August 2021
Date of first compliant Open Access:	13 September 2021
Funder:	Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) - OPP1184344 [Davis], RCUK | Medical Research Council (MRC) - MR/V028618/1 [Davis], RCUK | Medical Research Council (MRC) - MR/V038613/1 [Davis], Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) - OPP1184344 [Lucas], Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) - OPP1184344 [Borlase], Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) - OPP1184344 [Pollington], RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) - EP/L015374 [Pollington], Wellcome Trust (Wellcome) - 210758/Z/18/Z [Abbott], Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) - OPP1184344 [Ayabina], Wellcome Trust (Wellcome) - 215919/Z/19/Z [Crellen], Wellcome Trust (Wellcome) - 210758/Z/18/Z [Hellewell], RCUK | MRC | Medical Research Foundation - MR/V028618/1 [Pi], Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) - OPP1184344 [Medley], Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) - OPP1184344 [Hollingsworth], RCUK | MRC | Medical Research Foundation - MR/V028618/1 [Hollingsworth], RCUK | MRC | Medical Research Foundation - MR/V038613/1 [Hollingsworth], EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020) - 101003688 [Klepac], Royal Society - RP/EA/180004 [Klepac]
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:	Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID OPP1184344 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000865 MR/V028618/1 [MRC] Medical Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265 MR/V038613/1 [MRC] Medical Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265 EP/L015374/1 [EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266 215919/Z/19/Z Wellcome Trust http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010269 215919/Z/19/Z Wellcome Trust http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010269 210758/Z/18/Z Wellcome Trust http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010269 101003688 [ERC] Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661 RP/EA/180004 [RS] Royal Society http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000288

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