The Library
Forecasting economic processes
Tools
UNSPECIFIED (1998) Forecasting economic processes. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 14 (1). pp. 111-131. ISSN 0169-2070.
Research output not available from this repository.
Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.
Abstract
When the assumption of constant parameters fails, the in-sample fit of a model may be a poor guide to ex-ante forecast performance. We expound a number of models, methods, and procedures that illustrate the impacts of structural breaks on forecast accuracy, and evaluate ways of improving forecast performance. We argue that a theory of economic forecasting which allows for model mis-specification and structural breaks is feasible, and may provide a useful basis for interpreting and circumventing systematic forecast failure in macroeconomics. The empirical time series of consumers' expenditure, and Monte Carlo simulations, illustrate the analysis. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management |
||||
Journal or Publication Title: | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | ||||
Publisher: | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV | ||||
ISSN: | 0169-2070 | ||||
Official Date: | March 1998 | ||||
Dates: |
|
||||
Volume: | 14 | ||||
Number: | 1 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 21 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 111-131 | ||||
Publication Status: | Published |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |