The Library
COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya
Tools
Tools
Tools
(2021) COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya. Science, 374 (6570). pp. 989-994. doi:10.1126/science.abk0414 ISSN 0036-8075.
|
PDF
WRAP-COVID-19-transmission-dynamics-underlying-epidemic-waves-Kenya-2021.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (1580Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abk0414
Abstract
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or when infection spreads to susceptible sub-populations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socio-economic and urban/rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease) , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology -- Kenya, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Prevention -- Government policy -- Kenya, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Transmission -- Mathematical models -- Kenya, Coronavirus infections -- Transmission -- Mathematical models -- Kenya | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Science | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | American Association for the Advancement of Science | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0036-8075 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 7 October 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Volume: | 374 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Number: | 6570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 989-994 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1126/science.abk0414 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 18 November 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 19 November 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
|
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
