Zhu , Jian-Qiao , Newall, Philip W. S., Sundh, Joakim, Chater, Nick and Sanborn, Adam N. (2022) Clarifying the relationship between coherence and accuracy in probability judgments. Cognition, 223 . 105022. doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2022.105022 ISSN 0010-0277.

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Abstract

Bayesian approaches presuppose that following the coherence conditions of probability theory makes probabilistic judgments more accurate. But other influential theories claim accurate judgments (with high “ecological rationality”) do not need to be coherent. Empirical results support these latter theories, threatening Bayesian models of intelligence; and suggesting, moreover, that “heuristics and biases” research, which focuses on violations of coherence, is largely irrelevant. We carry out a higher-power experiment involving poker probability judgments (and a formally analogous urn task), with groups of poker novices, occasional poker players, and poker experts, finding a positive relationship between coherence and accuracy both between groups and across individuals. Both the positive relationship in our data, and past null results, are captured by a sample-based Bayesian approximation model, where a person's accuracy and coherence both increase with the number of samples drawn. Thus, we reconcile the theoretical link between accuracy and coherence with apparently negative empirical results.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BC Logic B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Sense of coherence , Rationalization (Psychology), Probabilities , Judgment
Journal or Publication Title:	Cognition
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0010-0277
Official Date:	June 2022
Dates:	Date Event June 2022 Published 22 January 2022 Available 11 January 2022 Accepted
Volume:	223
Article Number:	105022
DOI:	10.1016/j.cognition.2022.105022
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	10 January 2022
Date of first compliant Open Access:	2 February 2022
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:	Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID ES/R00787X/1 [ESRC] Economic and Social Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269 817492-SAMPLING European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781 ES/P008976/1 [ESRC] Economic and Social Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269
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