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Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence
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Mancy, Rebecca, Rajeev, Malavika, Lugelo, Ahmed, Brunker, Kirstyn, Cleaveland, Sarah, Ferguson, Elaine A., Hotopp, Karen, Kazwala, Rudovick, Magoto, Matthias, Rysava, Kristyna, Haydon, Daniel T. and Hampson, Katie (2022) Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence. Science, 376 (6592). pp. 512-516. doi:10.1126/science.abn0713
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abn0713
Abstract
How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.
Item Type: | Journal Item | ||||||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) |
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Journal or Publication Title: | Science | ||||||||||
Publisher: | American Association for the Advancement of Science | ||||||||||
ISSN: | 0036-8075 | ||||||||||
Official Date: | 29 April 2022 | ||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 376 | ||||||||||
Number: | 6592 | ||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 512-516 | ||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1126/science.abn0713 | ||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on Vol. 376 No.6562 28/04/2022, DOI: 10.1126/science.abn0713 | ||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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