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Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya
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(2022) Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya. BMJ Global Health, 7 (8). e009430. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009430 ISSN 2059-7908.
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WRAP-Epidemiological-impact-and-cost-effectiveness-analysis-of-COVID-19-vaccination-in-Kenya-Brand-2022.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0. Download (3863Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009430
Abstract
Background: Few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Methods: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (> 18 years) population prioritizing roll-out in over 50-year olds (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at $7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of $3.90-$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was USD 919.
Findings: Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets over 50-year-olds and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8,132(7,914 to 8,373)) than no vaccination and was cost-saving (ICER=US$-1,343 (-1,345 to -1,341) per DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757 to 872) and 5% (282 (251 to 317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya’s cost-effectiveness threshold ($ 919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=$-1,607 (-1,609 to -1,604) per DALY averted) compared to slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective.
Interpretation: With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine | ||||||||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease), COVID-19 (Disease) -- Vaccination -- Kenya -- Cost effectiveness , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Epidemiology -- Kenya | ||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | BMJ Global Health | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | BMJ | ||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 2059-7908 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 1 August 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Number: | 8 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Number of Pages: | 13 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | e009430 | ||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009430 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 22 June 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 24 June 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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