Fleischhut, Nadine, Artinger, Florian M., Olschewski, Sebastian and Hertwig, Ralph (2022) Not all uncertainty is treated equally : information search under social and nonsocial uncertainty. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 35 (2). e2250. doi:10.1002/bdm.2250 ISSN 0894-3257.

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Abstract

The social world is often portrayed as being less predictable and more uncertain than the nonsocial world. People may therefore feel the need to search more for information before making a choice. However, we suggest that cognitive tools such as social projection and norm-based expectation may help people to predict others' behaviors in the social world and thus serve as a substitute for information search. We argue that in situations where the environment affords this possibility, social uncertainty may in fact trigger less search than nonsocial uncertainty. Consistent with our expectations, findings from two experiments showed that participants sampled considerably less and systematically differently in a mini-ultimatum game (mUG; social uncertainty) than in structurally identical lotteries (nonsocial uncertainty). Even selfish individuals sensitive to the risk of rejection did not sample more than others, let alone as much as people in lotteries. Raising the stakes strongly increased sampling effort in lotteries but not in the social game. When evaluating risks based on outcomes alone, participants also anticipated searching less in mUGs than in lotteries, indicating that they were aware of norm-based regularities in social worlds and that they exploited those regularities to guide their expectations. The findings highlight that the structure of social environments can enable decision makers to use cognitive tools to navigate uncertainty without needing to invest in extensive search.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Decision making -- Social aspects, Information behavior -- Social aspects, Game theory, Risk, Uncertainty (Information theory), Cognition -- Social aspects, Social perception, Decision making -- Psychological aspects
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
Publisher:	John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
ISSN:	0894-3257
Official Date:	1 March 2022
Dates:	Date Event 1 March 2022 Published 2 June 2021 Available 26 April 2021 Accepted 14 October 2020 Submitted
Volume:	35
Number:	2
Number of Pages:	14
Article Number:	e2250
DOI:	10.1002/bdm.2250
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	3 August 2022
Date of first compliant Open Access:	8 August 2022
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:	Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID UNSPECIFIED Max Planck Institute for Human Development UNSPECIFIED

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