Preiherman, Yauheni (2021) Managing geopolitical uncertainty : foreign policy hedging by small in-between states (the cases of Armenia and Belarus in 2008-2020). PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

The IR literature often overlooks one category of states – small states that sit in-between centres of geopolitical gravity and have highly asymmetrical relations with them. Conventional theories and most non-conventional approaches expect such states to bandwagon systematically with the dominating power, especially when geopolitical tensions rise. However, empirical observations indicate that this is rarely the case. This presents an interesting research puzzle, which the thesis addresses by conducting structured and focused comparative case study analysis of Armenia’s and Belarus’s foreign policies in 2008-2020. The research draws on the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism to develop a novel model of foreign policy hedging, which improves existing models of strategic hedging by introducing a sophisticated operationalisation and identification mechanism.

The thesis claims two main theoretical findings. First, growing geopolitical tensions produce among small in-between states’ elites an overarching perception of uncertainty, which they associate not only with heightened risks but also with opportunities. Second, they respond to geopolitical uncertainty by foreign policy hedging. Importantly, once structural tensions escalate to the level of an all-out confrontation, small in-between states tend to either reduce their hedging portfolios or drop them altogether, as under such conditions uncertainty about risks and opportunities evolves into certainty about immediate threats.

The thesis contributes to the growing literature on (strategic) hedging by developing a new model of foreign policy hedging with a two-layered identification mechanism. It also presents an innovative interpretation of the sources and limitations of foreign policy hedging by small in-between states. Finally, the thesis introduces hedging to post-Soviet studies.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	J Political Science > JC Political theory J Political Science > JX International law J Political Science > JZ International relations
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	States, Small -- Politics and government, Armenia -- Foreign relations, Belarus -- Foreign relations, International relations
Official Date:	August 2021
Dates:	Date Event August 2021 UNSPECIFIED
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Politics and International Studies
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Smith, Michael, 1947- ; Youngs, Richard, 1968-
Sponsors:	University of Warwick. Chancellor’s International Scholarship
Format of File:	pdf
Extent:	411 leaves : illustrations, maps
Language:	eng

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