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The plight of T. Pallidum : the rise and fall and subsequent rise of a neglected NTD
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Holmes, Alexander (2022) The plight of T. Pallidum : the rise and fall and subsequent rise of a neglected NTD. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
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Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b3858102
Abstract
Yaws is a neglected tropical disease targeted for eradication by 2030. To achieve eradication, finding and treating asymptomatic infections as well as clinical cases is crucial. The proposed plan, the Morges strategy, involves rounds of total community treatment (i.e., treating the whole population) and total targeted treatment (TTT) (i.e., treating clinical cases and contacts). However, modelling and empirical work suggests asymptomatic infections often are not found in the same households as clinical cases, reducing the utility of household-based contact tracing as a TTT strategy.
In this thesis, we develop stochastic models of yaws transmission and use these models to explore different eradication strategies, and assess how well these reach individuals with latent infection. Our results show that a larger number of rounds of mass treatment are likely to be required than are currently being recommended. Additionally, we show that these results are heavily impacted by the levels of systematic non-treatment present within the intervention. Finally, we show that despite the majority of cases occurring within children, an approach focusing primarily on treating children is unlikely to be successful.
These results provide insight into the challenges facing yaws eradication, and suggest some areas where future work may be required.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) | ||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Yaws -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models, Yaws -- Transmission -- Statistical methods, Yaws -- Treatment -- Mathematical models, Stochastic models, Treponema pallidum, Tropical medicine | ||||
Official Date: | July 2022 | ||||
Dates: |
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Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
Theses Department: | Mathematics Institute | ||||
Thesis Type: | PhD | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Dyson, Louise ; Tildesley, Michael J. | ||||
Format of File: | |||||
Extent: | xvi, 193, 18 pages : illustrations | ||||
Language: | eng |
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