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A practical guide to mathematical methods for estimating infectious disease outbreak risks
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Southall, Emma, Ogi-Gittins, Z., Kaye, A. R., Hart, W. S., Lovell-Read, F. A. and Thompson, R. N. (2023) A practical guide to mathematical methods for estimating infectious disease outbreak risks. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 562 . 111417. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111417 ISSN 0022-5193.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111417
Abstract
Mathematical models are increasingly used throughout infectious disease outbreaks to guide control measures. In this review article, we focus on the initial stages of an outbreak, when a pathogen has just been observed in a new location (e.g., a town, region or country). We provide a beginner’s guide to two methods for estimating the risk that introduced cases lead to sustained local transmission (i.e., the probability of a major outbreak), as opposed to the outbreak fading out with only a small number of cases. We discuss how these simple methods can be extended for epidemiological models with any level of complexity, facilitating their wider use, and describe how estimates of the probability of a major outbreak can be used to guide pathogen surveillance and control strategies. We also give an overview of previous applications of these approaches. This guide is intended to help quantitative researchers develop their own epidemiological models and use them to estimate the risks associated with pathogens arriving in new host populations. The development of these models is crucial for future outbreak preparedness.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Theoretical Biology | ||||||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0022-5193 | ||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 7 April 2023 | ||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 562 | ||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 111417 | ||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111417 | ||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 26 July 2023 | ||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 26 July 2023 | ||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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