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Temporal cascade model for analyzing spread in evolving networks
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Haldar, Aparajita, Wang, Shuang, Demirci, Gunduz Vehbi, Oakley, Joe and Ferhatosmanoglu, Hakan (2023) Temporal cascade model for analyzing spread in evolving networks. ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems, 9 (2). 12. doi:10.1145/3579996 ISSN 2374-0361.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1145/3579996
Abstract
Current approaches for modeling propagation in networks (e.g., of diseases, computer viruses, rumors) cannot adequately capture temporal properties such as order/duration of evolving connections or dynamic likelihoods of propagation along connections. Temporal models on evolving networks are crucial in applications that need to analyze dynamic spread. For example, a disease spreading virus has varying transmissibility based on interactions between individuals occurring with different frequency, proximity, and venue population density. Similarly, propagation of information having a limited active period, such as rumors, depends on the temporal dynamics of social interactions. To capture such behaviors, we first develop the Temporal Independent Cascade (T-IC) model with a spread function that efficiently utilizes a hypergraph-based sampling strategy and dynamic propagation probabilities. We prove this function to be submodular, with guarantees of approximation quality. This enables scalable analysis on highly granular temporal networks where other models struggle, such as when the spread across connections exhibits arbitrary temporally evolving patterns. We then introduce the notion of ‘reverse spread’ using the proposed T-IC processes, and develop novel solutions to identify both sentinel/detector nodes and highly susceptible nodes. Extensive analysis on real-world datasets shows that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the alternatives in modeling both if and how spread occurs, by considering evolving network topology alongside granular contact/interaction information. Our approach has numerous applications, such as virus/rumor/influence tracking. Utilizing T-IC, we explore vital challenges of monitoring the impact of various intervention strategies over real spatio-temporal contact networks where we show our approach to be highly effective.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Electronic computers. Computer science. Computer software | ||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Computer Science | ||||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Application software, Mathematics -- Data processing, Graph theory -- Data processing, Computer simulation, Social networks -- Mathematical models | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems | ||||||||
Publisher: | Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) | ||||||||
ISSN: | 2374-0361 | ||||||||
Official Date: | 12 April 2023 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 9 | ||||||||
Number: | 2 | ||||||||
Number of Pages: | 30 | ||||||||
Article Number: | 12 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1145/3579996 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Re-use Statement: | © 2023 Copyright held by the owner/author(s). Publication rights licensed to ACM. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here for your personal use. Not for redistribution. The definitive Version of Record was published in ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems, https://doi.org/10.1145/3579996 | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Free Access (unspecified licence, 'bronze OA') | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 27 February 2023 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 28 February 2023 | ||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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