The Library
Real‐time perceptions of historical GDP data uncertainty
Tools
Galvão, Ana Beatriz and Mitchell, James (2023) Real‐time perceptions of historical GDP data uncertainty. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 85 (3). pp. 457-481. doi:10.1111/obes.12542 ISSN 0305-9049.
|
PDF
WRAP-real‐time-perceptions-historical-GDP-data-uncertainty-Galvão-2023.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0. Download (1491Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12542
Abstract
GDP is measured with error. But data uncertainty is rarely communicated quantitatively in real‐time. An exception are the fan charts for historical real GDP growth published by the Bank of England. To assess how well data uncertainty is understood, we first evaluate the accuracy of the historical fan charts. We find that data uncertainties can be accurately quantified, even without judgement, using past revisions data. Secondly, we conduct an online survey to gauge perceptions of GDP data uncertainty across a wider set of experts. Our results call for greater communication of data uncertainties to anchor experts' dispersed expectations.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions | ||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Finance Group Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
||||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Gross domestic product -- Great Britain, Gross domestic product -- Great Britain -- Forecasting, Uncertainty (Information theory) | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics | ||||||||
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc | ||||||||
ISSN: | 0305-9049 | ||||||||
Official Date: | June 2023 | ||||||||
Dates: |
|
||||||||
Volume: | 85 | ||||||||
Number: | 3 | ||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 457-481 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1111/obes.12542 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 6 March 2023 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 7 March 2023 | ||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
|
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year