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A Bayesian decision support system for counteracting activities of terrorist groups
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Shenvi, Aditi, Bunnin, Francis Oliver and Smith, Jim Q. (2023) A Bayesian decision support system for counteracting activities of terrorist groups. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 186 (3). pp. 294-312. doi:10.1093/jrsssa/qnac019 ISSN 1467-985X.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnac019
Abstract
We present an integrating decision support system designed to aid security analysts’ monitoring of terrorist groups. The system comprises of (i) a dynamic network model of the level of bilateral communications between individuals and (ii) dynamic graphical models of those individual’s latent threat states. These component models are combined in a statistically coherent manner to provide measures of the imminence of an attack by the terrorist group. Domain knowledge provides the structures of the models, values of parameters and prior distributions over latent variables. Inference of the values is performed using time-series of observed data and the statistical dependencies assumed between said data and model variables. The work draws on social network and graphical models used in sociological, military, and medical fields.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare Q Science > QA Mathematics T Technology > T Technology (General) |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||||||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Terrorism -- Prevention -- Mathematical models, Decision support systems , Crime analysis -- Data processing, Bayesian statistical decision theory | ||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society | ||||||||||||
Publisher: | Oxford University Press | ||||||||||||
ISSN: | 1467-985X | ||||||||||||
Official Date: | July 2023 | ||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 186 | ||||||||||||
Number: | 3 | ||||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 294-312 | ||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1093/jrsssa/qnac019 | ||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 2 March 2023 | ||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 2 March 2023 | ||||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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