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Investigating the efficacy of vaccine strategies in Turkey using a mathematical epidemiological model
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Guyver-Fletcher, Glen David (2022) Investigating the efficacy of vaccine strategies in Turkey using a mathematical epidemiological model. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
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Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b3877301
Abstract
Many regions of the world experience regular outbreaks of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), a virulent livestock disease which causes great amounts of economic damage. Mathematical models are a fundamental component of many epidemiological studies, however there is limited work on endemic FMD due to the complicated dynamics of the endemic disease and a lack of good data. We probe the dynamics of this disease using a model developed with these dynamics, along with high quality data from Turkey.
First, we develop a stochastic spatial metapopulation model which takes into account the dynamics of endemic FMD, test identifiable parameters with the available data from Turkey, and parameterise the model using the Approximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) model fitting algorithm. Second, we assess plausible control policies for their effectiveness in reducing disease circulation and potential for disease eradication. The optimal control policy combinations are found to be reactive ring vaccination with biannual mass vaccination, but reactive movement bans are ineffective. The parameter sensitivity of these control policies are then identified.
Third, we use the model to explore potential carrier transmission and compare this to transmission via movements of infected livestock. The rate of carrier transmission sufficient to contribute to persistence of the disease is found to be very low, such that failure to observe transmission experimentally is unsurprising. Movement transmission alone is found to be insufficient for persistence, however the assumption of vehicle contamination allows persistence also.
Finally, we explore the interaction of the assumed persistence drivers of carrier transmission and contaminated livestock shipments, and assess control policies in the presence of these disease transmission mechanisms. It is shown that pessimistic assumptions of carrier transmission alter the optimal control policy to reactive ring vaccination alone, but contaminated livestock shipments make no difference to the optimal control policies.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) | ||||
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Subjects: | S Agriculture > SF Animal culture | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Foot-and-mouth disease -- Vaccination -- Turkey, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models -- Turkey, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Transmission -- Mathematical models -- Turkey | ||||
Official Date: | March 2022 | ||||
Dates: |
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Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
Theses Department: | School of Life Sciences | ||||
Thesis Type: | PhD | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Tildesley, Michael J. ; Gorsich, Erin | ||||
Sponsors: | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Great Britain) ; Midlands Integrative Biosciences Training Partnership | ||||
Format of File: | |||||
Extent: | xiii, 190 pages : illustrations (colour), charts | ||||
Language: | eng |
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