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Eliciting human beliefs using random generation
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Leon-Villagra, Pablo, Castillo, Lucas, Chater, Nick and Sanborn, Adam N. (2022) Eliciting human beliefs using random generation. In: 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022, Toronto, Canada, 27–30 Jul 2022. Published in: Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022 pp. 2000-2006.
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Abstract
Elicitation methods, such as asking people to produce the deciles of a distribution, are standard practices in policy or applied statistics. However, these approaches often only capture a rough outline of what people know. We investigated whether tasks in which participants generate random sequences of items can be used to elicit people's implicit beliefs about the distribution of these items. Because it remains unclear if, and at what level of detail, people represent distributions, we applied both decile elicitation and random generation tasks to uncover the kinds of environmental statistics investigated by Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006). We found that random generation is competitive with decile elicitation in predicting participants' expectations. Both random generation and decile elicitation revealed that people know the rough shapes of environmental distributions. Random generation, however, goes beyond decile elicitation in establishing the novel finding that people are aware of fine details of environmental distributions. © 2022 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY)
| Item Type: | Conference Item (Paper) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022 | ||||
| Official Date: | 2022 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Page Range: | pp. 2000-2006 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Conference Paper Type: | Paper | ||||
| Title of Event: | 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022 | ||||
| Type of Event: | Other | ||||
| Location of Event: | Toronto, Canada | ||||
| Date(s) of Event: | 27–30 Jul 2022 | ||||
| Related URLs: |
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