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Estimating the risk of reoffending by using exponential mixture models
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UNSPECIFIED (1997) Estimating the risk of reoffending by using exponential mixture models. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 160 (Part 2). pp. 237-252. ISSN 0035-9238.
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Abstract
In deciding whether to release a prisoner on parole, the Parole Board as provided with a statistical score which estimates the chance that the prisoner will reoffend within the period of time that he or she would otherwise be in prison. This score is based on a survival analysis of data on a sample of releases from long-term prison sentences. To capture most reoffences which occur within 2 years of release, follow-up must continue for at least 3 years to allow for the delay between offence and conviction. We reanalyse the data by using a model which explicitly allows for this delay. The new analysis can be applied to data with a substantially shorter length of follow-up. This means that risk scores can be constructed from more up-to-date data and at less cost.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences Q Science > QA Mathematics |
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Journal or Publication Title: | JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY | ||||
Publisher: | BLACKWELL PUBL LTD | ||||
ISSN: | 0035-9238 | ||||
Official Date: | 1997 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 160 | ||||
Number: | Part 2 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 16 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 237-252 | ||||
Publication Status: | Published |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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