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Conspiracy theories as overfitted explanations
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Hattersley, Michael (2022) Conspiracy theories as overfitted explanations. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
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Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b3903292~S15
Abstract
Conspiracy theories are pervasive and influential, making understanding their appeal an important goal. This thesis focuses on the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and reasoning and considers how people with conspiracy beliefs interact with new information. I introduce a novel Overfitting Hypothesis, which suggests that conspiracy theories are examples of overfitted explanations, offering high model fit to immediate data at the expense of generalisability. Overfitted conspiracy theories make the world unpredictable for believers, who thereby adopt cognitive tendencies to help them manage this increased uncertainty.
In this thesis, we tested a variety of hypotheses that follow from this Overfitting Hypothesis. In Chapter 2, we tested the hypothesis that reasoning is more closely linked to implausible than plausible conspiracy beliefs. Indeed, information sampling and reflective reasoning were more consistently negatively correlated with belief in implausible, but not plausible, conspiracy beliefs. In Chapter 3, we explored the possibility that people with conspiracy beliefs were generally averse to new information. We found no evidence supporting this prediction, however. Participants were generally more information-seeking than avoidant, independent of conspiracy belief. In Chapter 4, we considered whether people with implausible conspiracy beliefs are highly motivated to form conclusions quickly, and consequently are insensitive to the attributes of information. Consistent with this idea, people high in implausible conspiracy beliefs sampled less in a foraging task and were less sensitive to changes in data diagnosticity or reliability than were those lower in belief. Instead, believers were more sensitive to whether the data were consistent with prior expectations.
Overall, our results suggest that people with conspiracy beliefs interact with information in a relatively limited manner. Moreover, our findings were consistent with the Overfitting Hypothesis, which offers a novel perspective on the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and informational reasoning.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) | ||||
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Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Conspiracy theories, Conspiracy theories -- Psychological aspects, Reasoning (Psychology), Information behavior | ||||
Official Date: | September 2022 | ||||
Dates: |
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Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
Theses Department: | Department of Psychology | ||||
Thesis Type: | PhD | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Ludvig, Elliot Andrew, 1975- ; Brown, G. D. A. (Gordon D. A.) ; Michael, John | ||||
Format of File: | |||||
Extent: | ix, 240 pages : colour illustrations | ||||
Language: | eng |
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