The Library
An early warning indicator for monitoring infectious animal diseases and its application in the case of a sheep pox epidemic
Tools
Malesios, Chrisovalantis, Kostoulas, P., Dadousis, K. and Demiris, N. (2017) An early warning indicator for monitoring infectious animal diseases and its application in the case of a sheep pox epidemic. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 31 (2). pp. 329-337. doi:10.1007/s00477-016-1316-5 ISSN 1436-3240.
Research output not available from this repository.
Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.
Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1316-5
Abstract
We describe an early warning indicator for monitoring infectious diseases. The approach is illustrated with data from a major sheep pox epidemic, which occurred in the Evros prefecture of Greece, from August 2013 until the end of 2014. We present the epidemic data and identify factors affecting this major epidemic using a suitable methodological framework for the sequential analysis of such outbreaks. Environmental conditions and seasonality affect the spread of the epidemic: autumn seems to enhance disease occurrence and higher average temperatures facilitate disease spread. The on-line prediction of the disease potential is investigated through an early warning system that is based on the probability of the disease going extinct. The temporal stability of this indicator is extensively explored.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Divisions: | Faculty of Arts > School for Cross-faculty Studies > Institute for Global Sustainable Development | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment | ||||||
Publisher: | Springer | ||||||
ISSN: | 1436-3240 | ||||||
Official Date: | February 2017 | ||||||
Dates: |
|
||||||
Volume: | 31 | ||||||
Number: | 2 | ||||||
Page Range: | pp. 329-337 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1007/s00477-016-1316-5 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |