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Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe
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Napierała, Joanna, Hilton, Jason, Forster, Jonathan J., Carammia, Marcello and Bijak, Jakub (2022) Toward an early warning system for monitoring asylum-related migration flows in Europe. International Migration Review, 56 (1). pp. 33-62. doi:10.1177/01979183211035736 ISSN 1747-7379.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/01979183211035736
Abstract
Asylum-related migration is highly complex, uncertain, and volatile, which precludes using standard model-based predictions to inform policy and operational decisions. At the same time, asylum's potentially high societal impacts on receiving countries and the resource implications of asylum processes call for more proactive approaches for assessing current and future migration flows. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to asylum modeling, based on the detection of early warning signals by using models originating from statistical control theory. Our empirical analysis of several asylum flows into Europe in 2010–2016 demonstrates the approach's utility and potential in aiding the management of mixed migration flows, while also shedding more light on the work needed to make better use of the “big data” and scenario-based methods for comprehensive and systematic examination of risk, uncertainty, and emerging trends.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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Subjects: | J Political Science > JV Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migration | |||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | |||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Emigration and immigration, Emigration and immigration -- Government policy, Migrant labor -- Government policy, Refugees -- Government policy -- European Union countries, Asylum, Right of -- European Union countries, Refugees -- Legal status, laws, etc. -- European Union countries, Emigration and immigration -- Statistical methods, Emigration and immigration -- Forecasting -- Statistical methods, Border security -- European Union countries | |||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | International Migration Review | |||||||||
Publisher: | SAGE Publications | |||||||||
ISSN: | 1747-7379 | |||||||||
Official Date: | March 2022 | |||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 56 | |||||||||
Number: | 1 | |||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 33-62 | |||||||||
DOI: | 10.1177/01979183211035736 | |||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 9 August 2023 | |||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 9 August 2023 | |||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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