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The Unified Tradeoff Model
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Scholten, M., Walters, D. J., Fox, C. R. and Read, Daniel (2024) The Unified Tradeoff Model. Psychological Review . doi:10.1037/rev0000458 ISSN 0033-295X. (In Press)
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000458
Abstract
Evidence is steadily mounting that attribute-based models offer a more accurate description of intertemporal choices than traditional alternative-based models. Among the attribute-based models, the tradeoff model offers the broadest coverage of research findings, but at the cost of considerable complexity: There now are various instantiations of the model dealing with partially overlapping universes of choice options and preference patterns. Moreover, there are reports of preference patterns in intertemporal decisions about monetary losses that contradict all attribute-based models proposed so far. Taking stock of these core challenges, and all other evidence, we develop an account of intertemporal choice, the unified tradeoff model, that is simpler, yet more comprehensive, than all currently available versions of the tradeoff model taken together. It borrows extensively from its predecessors, but it introduces a new element, time bias, that enables it to accommodate an extraordinarily broad range of preference patterns, and also generate new predictions that contradict all existing models of intertemporal choice. We report four studies that test and confirm its predictions regarding delay, interval, sign, and magnitude dependence in choices between single-dated outcomes, and a fifth study that tests and confirms its predictions regarding the relation between delay preference in choices that only involve single-dated payments and duration preference in choices that also involve sequences of payments. Having subjected the unified tradeoff model to an elevated risk of disconfirmation, we discuss its parsimony and scope in relation to yet other phenomena, most notably, preference patterns in consumption decisions, the final frontier for attribute-based models.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory Q Science > QA Mathematics |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Delay discounting (Psychology), Consumption (Economics) -- Mathematical models, Choice (Psychology), Decision making -- Economic aspects, Time perception | ||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Psychological Review | ||||||||||||
Publisher: | American Psychological Association | ||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0033-295X | ||||||||||||
Official Date: | 2024 | ||||||||||||
Dates: |
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DOI: | 10.1037/rev0000458 | ||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
Publication Status: | In Press | ||||||||||||
Re-use Statement: | ©American Psychological Association, [Year]. This paper is not the copy of record and may not exactly replicate the authoritative document published in the APA journal. The final article is available, upon publication, at: [ARTICLE DOI]” | ||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 24 October 2023 | ||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 25 October 2023 | ||||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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