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Economic insecurity and the demand of populism in Europe
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Guiso, L., Herrera, Helios, Morelli, M. and Sonno, T. (2024) Economic insecurity and the demand of populism in Europe. Economica, 91 (362). pp. 588-620. doi:10.1111/ecca.12513 ISSN 0013-0427.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12513
Abstract
We document the spiral of populism in Europe and the direct and indirect role of economic insecurity shocks. Using survey data on individual voting, we make two contributions to the literature. (i) Economic insecurity shocks have a significant impact on the populist vote share, directly as demand for protection, and indirectly through the induced changes in trust and attitudes. (ii) A key consequence of increased economic insecurity is a drop in turnout. The impact of this largely neglected turnout effect is substantial: conditional on voting, when economic insecurity increases, almost 40% of the induced change in the vote for a populist party comes from the turnout channel.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Economica | ||||||||
Publisher: | Blackwell Publishing | ||||||||
ISSN: | 0013-0427 | ||||||||
Official Date: | April 2024 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 91 | ||||||||
Number: | 362 | ||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 588-620 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1111/ecca.12513 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 13 November 2023 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 7 March 2024 | ||||||||
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