The Library
Global energy scenarios : a geopolitical reality check
Tools
Blondeel, Mathieu, Price, James, Bradshaw, Michael J., Pye, Steve, Dodds, Paul, Kuzemko, Caroline and Bridge, Gavin (2024) Global energy scenarios : a geopolitical reality check. Global Environmental Change, 84 . 102781. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102781 ISSN 0959-3780.
|
PDF
1-s2.0-S0959378023001474-main.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (3942Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102781
Abstract
The ongoing Global Energy System Transformation (GEST) has attracted the attention of multiple academic disciplines and practitioners, approaching the process with different analytical and conceptual tools. We explore the ‘integration gap’ that exists between, on the one hand, Energy System Modelling and the stylised scenarios they use, and on the other, energy geopolitics. We consider how these approaches can complement each other to further our understanding of the global energy system’s future. Using a novel qualitative analytical framework, we review the extent to which a range of state-of-the-art global energy scenarios capture and reflect key issues in energy geopolitics in their narratives and model implementation. We find that few scenarios consider geopolitics in any depth. Those that do often treat it as a barrier to decarbonisation efforts that are aligned with the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. Normative, Paris-aligned scenarios describe smooth processes of change where cooperation and coordination between countries are assumed and where geopolitics is often completely absent. Our findings emphasise the need for a more intricate understanding of the difference between ‘paper transitions’ and the real-world messiness and complexities of GEST, where geopolitics has a dual quality of simultaneously accelerating and hindering the transformation process.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery |
||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Renewable energy sources, Geopolitics, Energy industries, Global environmental change, Energy transition | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Global Environmental Change | ||||||||
Publisher: | Pergamon | ||||||||
ISSN: | 0959-3780 | ||||||||
Official Date: | January 2024 | ||||||||
Dates: |
|
||||||||
Volume: | 84 | ||||||||
Article Number: | 102781 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102781 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 14 December 2023 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 18 December 2023 | ||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
|
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year