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Making predictions based on data : holistic and atomistic procedures
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Glazer, Jacob and Rubinstein, Ariel (2024) Making predictions based on data : holistic and atomistic procedures. Journal of Economic Theory, 216 . 105791. doi:10.1016/j.jet.2023.105791 ISSN 0022-0531.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105791
Abstract
Subjects were asked to predict the choice made by a hypothetical individual, based on a small sample of his past choices in identical situations. Each of the alternatives facing the individual has a number of components. When the data is presented explicitly as a distribution of past choices, most subjects use the holistic procedure according to which the prediction is the most common choice made in the past. Nevertheless, a significant minority of subjects use atomistic procedures, which relate to the various components individually. When the distribution is not explicitly presented but can be derived from the data, subjects apply both atomistic procedures and holistic rules of thumb.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | ||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Experimental economics | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Economic Theory | ||||||||
Publisher: | Academic Press | ||||||||
ISSN: | 0022-0531 | ||||||||
Official Date: | March 2024 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 216 | ||||||||
Article Number: | 105791 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105791 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 5 January 2024 | ||||||||
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