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Modelling transboundary animal diseases at various scales
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Jones, Callum (2023) Modelling transboundary animal diseases at various scales. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
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Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b3981199~S15
Abstract
Mathematical models are an important tool to guide decision making for livestock disease. They can be used to estimate future epidemic behaviour or evaluate multiple control strategies. Model-based decision making occurs at multiple scales, from individual animals, to within farms, to between farms. In this thesis, we focus on modelling transboundary livestock diseases at the between-herd and within-herd scale.
In the first between-herd study, we focus on modelling with aggregated livestock data since multiple countries have aggregated or unavailable demographic and outbreak data. Three aggregation scenarios have not been considered in the aggregated data literature: aggregating farm size and location at the county level, a grid-level reporting system for infected premises, and the lack of pre-emptive culling information. To address this, we aggregated the premises-level UK 2001 foot and mouth data and evaluated the performance of models fitted to disaggregated data with a model fitted to the unaggregated data by comparing R0 maps and epidemic metrics. We also tested whether the results were robust to the amount of outbreak data available.
In the second between-herd study, we focus on livestock shipments in the United States (U.S.). Movements of animals between premises can result in disease spread over large distances. For the U.S., the most complete datasets available to describe swine shipments are Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection and Swine Production Health Plan agreements. We apply network analysis to compare national-scale characterisations of the two datasets. We also evaluate the datasets by investigating whether they describe similar or unique subsets of the swine industry with regression analysis.
For the within-herd scale, we developed a novel within-herd model for the spread of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) on a large, industrialised swine farm in the U.S. PEDV remains a threat to the U.S. swine industry (and other countries) due to the lack of an effective vaccine. With our model, we provide a quantitative evaluation of control strategies by evaluating their effectiveness and presenting a best-case scenario for the eradication of the virus.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) | ||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Transboundary animal diseases, Diseases -- Animal models, Livestock -- Diseases | ||||
Official Date: | March 2023 | ||||
Dates: |
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Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
Theses Department: | Mathematics for Real-World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training | ||||
Thesis Type: | PhD | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Gorsich, Erin ; Tildesley, Michael J. | ||||
Sponsors: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council | ||||
Format of File: | |||||
Extent: | xiii, 166 pages : illustrations | ||||
Language: | eng |
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