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Opinion polls, turnout and the demand for safe seats
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Alabrese, Eleonora and Fetzer, Thiemo (2024) Opinion polls, turnout and the demand for safe seats. Working Paper. University of Warwick. Department of Economics: Coventry, UK. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS), 1494 . (Unpublished)
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Official URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w...
Abstract
Do opinion polls sway turnout and shape political competition in majoritarian systems? Can they strengthen the persistence of safe seats? Analysing national opinion polls during UK general elections and the perceived safeness of constituencies, we find that pre-election polls significantly affect voter turnout. Non-competitive elections predicted by national polls suppress turnout, especially in areas with low perceived electoral competition. This reinforces the advantage of trailing parties in their strongholds, potentially fuelling party demand for safe seats that may give rise to demands for gerrymandering. This can exacerbate spatial polarization of the electoral landscape, with implications for governance regarding opinion polling.
Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HM Sociology J Political Science > JC Political theory J Political Science > JF Political institutions (General) J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Public opinion polls, Election forecasting , Voter turnout, Proportional representation, Representative government and representation., Elections -- Great Britain | ||||||
Series Name: | Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) | ||||||
Publisher: | Coventry, UK | ||||||
Place of Publication: | University of Warwick. Department of Economics | ||||||
ISSN: | 0083-7350 | ||||||
Official Date: | April 2024 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 1494 | ||||||
Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||||
Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Free Access (unspecified licence, 'bronze OA') | ||||||
Open Access Version: |
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