Cant, Susie, Shanks, G. Dennis, Keeling, Matt J. and Penman, Bridget S. (2024) Extreme mortality during a historical measles outbreak on Rotuma is consistent with measles immunosuppression. Epidemiology and Infection, 152 . e85. doi:10.1017/S095026882400075X ISSN 0950-2688.
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Abstract
Until the early twentieth century, populations on many Pacific Islands had never experienced measles. As travel to the Pacific Islands by Europeans became more common, the arrival of measles and other pathogens had devastating consequences. In 1911, Rotuma in Fiji was hit by a measles epidemic, which killed 13% of the island population. Detailed records show two mortality peaks, with individuals reported as dying solely from measles in the first and from measles and diarrhoea in the second. Measles is known to disrupt immune system function. Here, we investigate whether the pattern of mortality on Rotuma in 1911 was a consequence of the immunosuppressive effects of measles. We use a compartmental model to simulate measles infection and immunosuppression. Whilst immunosuppressed, we assume that individuals are vulnerable to dysfunctional reactions triggered by either (i) a newly introduced infectious agent arriving at the same time as measles or (ii) microbes already present in the population in a pre-existing equilibrium state. We show that both forms of the immunosuppression model provide a plausible fit to the data and that the inclusion of immunosuppression in the model leads to more realistic estimates of measles epidemiological parameters than when immunosuppression is not included.
Item Type: | Journal Article |
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Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) |
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Measles -- Fiji -- Rotuma -- History, Measles -- Fiji -- Rotuma -- History -- Mathematical models, Immunosuppression, Measles -- Mortality -- Fiji -- Rotuma , Measles -- Fiji -- Rotuma -- Epidemiology |
Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemiology and Infection |
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press |
ISSN: | 0950-2688 |
Official Date: | 13 May 2024 |
Dates: | Date Event 13 May 2024 Published 2 May 2024 Accepted |
Volume: | 152 |
Article Number: | e85 |
DOI: | 10.1017/S095026882400075X |
Status: | Peer Reviewed |
Publication Status: | Published |
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons open licence) |
Date of first compliant deposit: | 6 June 2024 |
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 7 June 2024 |
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: | Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID EP/L015374/1 (MathSys CDT) [EPSRC] Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council |
URI: | https://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/186182/ |
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