Cooper, K., Brailsford, S. C. and Davies, R. (2007) Choice of modelling technique for evaluating health care interventions. Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol.58 (No.2). pp. 168-176. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602230 ISSN 0160-5682.

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Abstract

Economic evaluation, such as cost effectiveness analysis, provides a method for comparing healthcare interventions. These evaluations often use modelling techniques such as decision trees, Markov processes and discrete event simulations (DES). With the aid of examples from coronary heart disease, the use of these techniques in different health care situations is discussed. Guidelines for the choice of modelling technique are developed according to the characteristics of the health care intervention. The choice of modelling technique is shown to depend on the acceptance of the modelling technique, model 'error', model appropriateness, dimensionality and ease and speed of model development. Generally decision trees are suitable for acute interventions but they cannot model recursion and Markov models are suitable for simple chronic interventions. It is further recommended that population based models be used in order to provide health care outcomes for the likely cost, health benefits and cost effectiveness of the intervention. The population approach will complicate the construction of the model. DES will allow the modeller to construct more complex, dynamic and accurate systems but these may involve a corresponding increase in development time and expense. The modeller will need to make a judgement on the necessary complexity of the model in terms of interaction of individuals and model size and whether queuing for resources, resource constraints or the interactions between individuals are significant issues in the health care system.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of the Operational Research Society
Publisher:	Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.
ISSN:	0160-5682
Official Date:	February 2007
Dates:	Date Event February 2007 Published
Volume:	Vol.58
Number:	No.2
Number of Pages:	9
Page Range:	pp. 168-176
DOI:	10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602230
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access

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