Dodd, Lorraine and Smith, J. Q. (2010) Devolving command decisions in complex operations. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology. Working papers, Vol.2010 (No.17).

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Abstract

In contemporary military endeavours, Command and Control (C2) arrangements generally aim to
ensure an appropriate regulation of command-decision autonomy such that decision-takers are able to
act in a way that is consistent with the overall set of commanders' intents and according to the nature
of the unfolding situation. This can be a challenge, especially in situations with increasing degrees of
uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity, also where individual commanders are faced with con
icting
objectives. Increasingly it seems that command decisions are being taken under conditions of internal
command contention; for example, when the likely successful outcome of a tactical mission can often be
at odds with the overall strategic and political aims of the campaign. The work in the paper builds on our
previous research in decision-taking under uncertainty and con
icting objectives, where we analysed the
responses of military commanders in decision experiments. We demonstrated how multi-attribute utility
theory could be used to represent and understand the effects of uncertainty and con
icting objectives on a
particular commander's choices. In this paper, we further develop and generalise the theory to show that
the geometrical forms of expected utilities, which arise from the assumption of commander rationality,
are qualitatively stable in a wide range of scenarios. This opens out into further analysis linking to
Catastrophe Theory as it relates to C2 regulatory frameworks for devolving command decision freedoms.
We demonstrate how an appreciation of this geometry can aid understanding of the relationship between
socially complex operational environments and the prevailing C2, which can also inform selection and
training of personnel, to address issues of devolving command decision-rights, as appropriate for the
endeavour as a whole. The theory presented in the paper, therefore, provides a means to explore and
gain insight into different approaches to regulation of C2 decision-taking aimed ultimately at achieving
C2 agility, or at least at a conceptual language to allow its formal representation. C2 regulatory agents
are discussed in terms of detailed functions for moderating command decision-taking, as appropriate for
the degrees of uncertainty and goal contention being faced. The work also begins to address implications
of any lack of experience and any differences in personality-type of the individual commanders with
respect to risk-taking, open-minded-ness and creativity.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics U Military Science > U Military Science (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Command of troops -- Mathematical models, Tactics -- Mathematical models, Utility theory -- Mathematical models
Series Name:	Working papers
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Official Date:	August 2010
Dates:	Date Event August 2010 Published
Volume:	Vol.2010
Number:	No.17
Number of Pages:	20
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	1 August 2016
Date of first compliant Open Access:	1 August 2016

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