AlQatamin, Ma'en Mardi (1997) The behaviour of stock returns in Amman stock market : a thin emerging market. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

In this thesis the behaviour of stock returns of firms listed on the Amman Stock Market
is examined. The thin trading characteristic of the market is emphasised and its possible
effects on empirical investigations are analysed.
The first four chapters contain a review of the literature on the importance of stock
markets, the Efficient Market Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The
literature suggests that the allocative efficiency of funds via stock markets is related to
the operational and pricing efficiency of these markets. In such an efficient market, the
expected return on an investment is related only to its risk.
Chapter 5 tests the weak form efficiency of the ASM with particular emphasis on the
problem of thin trading. To achieve this, three alternatives for filling missing data gaps
are examined. In particular, it was found that extrapolation, based on market
movements, induces more dependence patterns. Yet, Examining the other two
alternatives, using daily price changes, statistical inefficiencies were detected, on the
one day level. Fewer dependence pa%erns were repored br \onger rnerva'1s. The
reported first order positive serial correlation can coriseqnence. o'i 'p'icrng uirrxs
imposed on trading in the market.
Chapter 6 provides a database of individual stock and market returns. Compiling this
database was a major contribution of this research.
Chapter 7 investigates the effects of different return measurement and beta estimation
approaches on tests of the CAPM. Specifically, the evidence indicates that the use of
different return measurement approaches can affect the results of tests of this
equilibrium model. Also, the adjustment of the trade-to-trade method, used for beta
estimation, reduces heteroscedasticity resulting from using non equal time intervals
when applying the market model.
The first part of chapter 8 provides an investigation of the sensitivity of the results, of
CAPM tests, to the length of the period used to estimate beta. The results suggest that
the longer the period, used to estimate beta, the more are the reported deviations from
the implied relationships of the model. The second part of Chapter 8 provides a test of
the CAPM using pooled data, and employing four lengths of periods to estimate beta.
The evidence was not consistent with the model. But, when specific attention was given
to the problem of thin trading, by constructing sub samples of the most traded stocks,
the validity of the model was established. However, this was only the case when beta is
estimated using 24 months of past returns, suggesting that market risk in Jordan changes
fairly rapidly.
Chapter 9 investigates the power of some firm-specific variables in explaining the cross
section of stock returns on the ASM. The evidence suggests that the book value,
earnings, leverage and the firm size, do not help in explaining the cross section variation
of firms listed on the ASM. This evidence is in accord with the CAPM.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Stocks -- Rate of return, Stock exchanges -- Jordan
Official Date:	July 1997
Dates:	Date Event July 1997 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Warwick Business School
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Davidson, Ian R.
Extent:	ix, 286 leaves
Language:	eng

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