Young, Andrew W. (1974) A developmental study of representation and strategy in children's solutions to problems involving chance and probability. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

The problems used in the study involve two collections of elements
of two colours. The proportions of elements of each colour in each of
the collections is varied, and the way children reason when asked which
collection they would prefer in order to gamble for a specified outcome
is investigated in three situations:
(a) The elements are beads to be drawn from boxes. (72 subjects
aged 5-10 years, 48 subjects aged 11-14 years).
(b) The elements are single segments marked on circles of different
sizes with pointers to be spun. (72 subjects aged 6-11 years).
(c) The elements are similar to (b), but marked into separate
pieces to allow comparison by counting. (60 subjects, aged
6-10 years).
Four possible ways of solving such problems are outlined:
Method 1: Guessing, alternating choices and other irrelevant methods.
Method 2: Comparing the amounts of the target elements in each collection,
and choosing the collection with the greater amount.
Method 3: Comparing the differences between the amount of target and non-target
elements in each collection, and choosing the collection
with the most favourable difference.
Method 4: Comparing the proportions of target and non-target elements
in each collection, and choosing the collection with the most
favourable proportion.
Within the main age range investigated. (6-10 years), methods 1-3
are found to form a developmental sequence, in situation (a), whereas in
situations (b) and (c) the predominant developmental sequence is from
Method 1 to Method 2 only. It is argued that this can be explained by
considering the methods of quantification used by subjects in each
situation.
(A summary of the way in which the main themes are developed in the
thesis is given at the end of the thesis.)

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology Q Science > QA Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Mathematical ability in children, Cognition in children, Probabilities -- Psychological aspects, Chance -- Psychological aspects
Official Date:	1974
Dates:	Date Event 1974 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Institute of Education
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Wallace, J. G. (John Gilbert)
Sponsors:	Social Science Research Council (Great Britain)
Extent:	291 p.
Language:	eng

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