Halikias, J. G. (1980) An econometric analysis of the foreign trade of Greece. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

This study is mainly concerned with the estimation of
Greece's dynamic import and export demand equations for goods
over the period 1954-1976.
Some recent empirical studies of the foreign trade of various
countries are first presented and the approaches that have
been pursued are described as a preliminary to the development of
our own theoretical framework. Foreign trade elasticities are
then estimated to test various hypotheses in the theory of international
trade and, subsequently, to be used in the formulation
of economic policy. Some applications of the empirical findings
to the trade balance of Greece are attempted. In general the trade
balance of Greece is found to be sensitive to both relative
price changes and the growth rates of Greece and its trading
partners.
In the course of the empirical work a number of methodological
pOints of importance in applied econometrics arise. In
particular we are concerned with the empirical specification of
dynamic models and the resulting hypothesis-testing problems.
Two model selection procedures for the empirical specification
of dynamic models are described and their performance is evaluated
in the context of our large scale empirical study. The first
procedure begins with the simplest (statiC) form of the relationship
and tests are performed to determine whether it is necessary
to consider more general specifications. An alternative method
begins with a general unrestricted dynamic model and then
attempts to reduce the number of parameters needed to specify
the data generation process. These two procedures are applied
to every import and export demand equation we consider and the
preferred specification to which each approach leads is reported.
It is found that the possibility of conflict between the two
procedures increases as higher-order dynamic models are considered.
The use of monthly data for the period 1954-1976 instead
of annual or quarterly observations, which have been employed
in previous work on models of foreign trade, constitutes a further
novelty of our approach, and the resulting problems and
their practical solution are described.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Greece -- Economic conditions -- 20th century, Greece -- Commerce -- Econometric models, Balance of trade -- Greece -- Econometric models
Official Date:	April 1980
Dates:	Date Event April 1980 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Economics
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Wallis, Kenneth Frank
Sponsors:	General Directorate of International Economic Relations. Technical Assistance Division ; Greece. Hypourgeion Syntonismou [Ministry of Coordination]
Extent:	333 p.
Language:	eng

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