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Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B
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Hens, N., Aerts, M., Shkedy, Z., Kimani, Peter K., Kojouhorova, M., Damme, Pierre van and Beutels, Ph. (2008) Estimating the impact of vaccination using age–time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B. Epidemiology and Infection, Vol.136 (No.3). pp. 341-351. doi:10.1017/S0950268807008692 ISSN 0950-2688.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807008692
Abstract
The objective of this study was to model the age–time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79–84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Hepatitis B -- Mathematical models, Hepatitis B -- Vaccination, Immunization -- Bulgaria -- Case studies | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemiology and Infection | ||||
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press | ||||
ISSN: | 0950-2688 | ||||
Official Date: | 2008 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Vol.136 | ||||
Number: | No.3 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 341-351 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1017/S0950268807008692 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
Funder: | Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek—Vlaanderen [Fund for Scientific Research] (FWO), Belgium. Politique scientifique fédérale [Belgian Federal Science Policy Office] (Belspo) | ||||
Grant number: | G.0393.04 (FWO), P5/24 (Belspo) |
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