Wilson, Peter (1981) A time-series simulation approach to the consequences of export instability for developing countries : the case of post-war Ghana. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

The object of this thesis is to examine the effects of export
instability on post-war Ghana by seeking to identify the mechanism
through which fluctuations were transmitted from the export to the
domestic sector. This involves the construction and estimation of
a macroeconomic model over the period 1956 to 1969, and the analysis
of its dynamic properties by means of simulation. It is intended to
extend our knowledge in this area of development economics by switching
the focus of analysis to a time-series basis and demonstrating
how the consequences of fluctuations in exports depend critically
on the structural characteristics of an economy and the assumptions
made about behaviour under uncertainty. We believe that this provides
both the basis of an alternative methodology to the one currently
in use, and a detailed investigation of one particular economy.
In chapter 1 we present some background to the debate and outline
the methodological framework employed. It includes a critical review
of the literature, some historical background on Ghana, the reasons
for its selection as a case-study; and an explanation of the-Methodology
adopted in this study. In chapter 2 the general nature of the
cocoa market is discussed, a model of the cocoa market is constructed
and estimated, and its linkages with the Ghanaian economy explLained.
In chapter 3, a macroeconomic model for Ghana is estimated and discussed
in the light of hypotheses about the transmission of e sport
fluctuations. In chapter 4, this model is simulated to investigate
its dynamic properties and to quantify the implications of export
market fluctuations.
In our conclusion, we suggest that our methodology provides a
useful basis for further research; and that export instabilitty had
important, albeit complex, repercussions on the Ghanaian ecoinomy over
the time period under investigation.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Exports -- Ghana -- Econometric models, Cocoa trade -- Ghana -- Econometric models, Ghana -- Economic conditions -- 1957-1979, Time-series analysis
Official Date:	April 1981
Dates:	Date Event April 1981 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Economics
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Ford, A. G. ; Ireland, Norman J.
Extent:	231 p.
Language:	eng

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