Roberts, Colin J. (1980) Aggregate employment : demand and supply in the U.K. engineering industry. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

The thesis aims to explain the determination of
employment at the industry level - in particular, the
S.I.C. Orders of the U.K. engineering industry. The
traditional demand-orientated approach is examined
theoretically and empirically. Many developments are
made to the models, but implausible and unstable estimates
are generally found. More major developments are attempted, modelling desired output and the relationship
between investment and employment with some success, but
without a generally acceptable model of aggregate
employment emerging.
The view is taken that a major reason for this is
likely to be the neglect of supply factors. Initial
attempts to allow for the tightness of the labour market
indicate some effect though incorrectly specified.
The second half of the thesis undertakes a more rigorous
and original analysis, involving the specification of an
industry labour supply function, to be analysed in
conjunction with the demand function. The appropriate
methods of analysis and estimation depend upon
assumptions about the interaction of demand and supply
and the role of wages.
Three stages of development are considered with
increasing realism of assumptions, but increasing
complexity of analysis and difficulty of estimation.
The first assumes flexibility of wages, equilibrating
sectors of the labour market and enabling simultaneous
estimation of aggregate demand and supply. The second
assumes a degree of inflexibility of wages, but
homogeneity of the sectors, so that aggregate demand or
supply is observed and 'regime' estimation is possible.
The third stage allows for non-homogeneity-of sectors
so that neither aggregate demand nor supply may be
observed. Constrained estimation, via programming
methods, results. Exogenous data is used to assess
the extent of excess demand and supply in the labour
market.
Whilst the empirical results are limited, they do
indicate the need for supply factors to be modelled
and included in the analysis of employment.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Engineering firms -- Great Britain -- Employees -- Supply and demand, Labor market -- Great Britain -- Econometric models, Wages -- Great Britain -- Econometric models
Official Date:	December 1980
Dates:	Date Event December 1980 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Economics
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Pyatt, Graham, 1936- ; Wabe, J. Stuart (James Stuart) ; Lindley, Robert M.
Sponsors:	Engineering Industry Training Board
Extent:	ix, 348 leaves
Language:	eng

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