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Here is the news : forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters
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Boero, Gianna, Smith, Jeremy and Wallis, Kenneth Frank (2008) Here is the news : forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters. National Institute Economic Review, Vol.203 (No.1). pp. 68-77. doi:10.1177/0027950108089679 ISSN 0027-9501.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0027950108089679
Abstract
This article analyses the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth by the individual respondents to the Bank of England's quarterly Survey of Extternal Forecasters, 1996-2005, using a recently released dataset. This comprises a conventioanl incomplete panel dataset, with an additional dimension arising from the collection of repeated forecasts for the last quarter of each year. This fixed-event forecast structure allows study of the forecast revision process, its weak and strong efficiency, and its relation to macroeconomic news. The collection of density forecasts as well as point forecasts allows study of the revision process of forecast uncertainty.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | ||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | National Institute Economic Review | ||||
Publisher: | Sage Publications Ltd. | ||||
ISSN: | 0027-9501 | ||||
Official Date: | 2008 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Vol.203 | ||||
Number: | No.1 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 10 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 68-77 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1177/0027950108089679 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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