Roberts, Mark A. (Mark Andrew) (1988) Information and exchange rate dynamics. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

Theoretical models of the exchange rate are developed where
information on the model is not fully available to agents. It is an
application of Benjamin Friedman's (1979) theme that full rational
expectations may be a possibility only in the long-run, even for
completely rational individuals. The thesis attempts to develop the
theory of exchange rate behaviour by considering some neglected
informational issues.
The three substantive chapters each consider specific aspects of
relevance to the determination of the exchange rate from an asset market
view of perfect capital mobility. These are the possible current
account inter-relationship, the persistence of interest rate
differentials between the two currencies and the subjectivity of and the
regress in beliefs across a decentralised market.
Generally, limited information on the model will give rise to
erroneous beliefs, on the one hand, and encourage the acquistion of
information and the revision of beliefs, on the other. Erroneous
beliefs will cause correlations between variables, which may not
normally occur inside full rational expectations. The revision of
beliefs will bring a particular source of non-stationarity to the data.
And the stability of certain learning forms may require limitations on
the degree of capital mobility.
These conclusions would suggest that any empirical work on
modelling the exchange rate may gain from relaxing certain a priori
restrictions, which properly belong to models with stronger assumptions
on the availability of information.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models
Official Date:	September 1988
Dates:	Date Event September 1988 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Economics
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Miller, Marcus, 1941- ; Renshaw, Geoffrey ; Wallis, Kenneth Frank
Sponsors:	Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC)
Extent:	185 p.
Language:	eng

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