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Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation
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Clements, Michael P. (2012) Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation. Working Paper. Coventry: Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS) (Number 976). (Unpublished)
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Text (Working paper)
WRAP_Clements_twerp_976.pdf - Other Download (761Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/resear...
Abstract
We consider whether survey respondents' probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model, and whether they are well calibrated more generally. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.
Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | ||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Economic forecasting, Economic surveys | ||||
Series Name: | Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS) | ||||
Publisher: | Department of Economics, University of Warwick | ||||
Place of Publication: | Coventry | ||||
Official Date: | 20 January 2012 | ||||
Dates: |
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Number: | Number 976 | ||||
Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) |
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