García-Fronti, Javier and Zhang, Lei (2008) Political uncertainty and the peso problem. Revista de Economía Política de Buenos Aires, Vol.1 (No.3-4). pp. 33-45.

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Abstract

This paper analyses the relation between political uncertainty and the Peso Problem in emerging markets. Initially, it is assumed that the country has a hard peg system (the present government will never devalue). As for the political opposition, however, it is open to the possibility of leaving the fixed regime when it comes to power. Assuming that the change of government follows a Poisson distribution, our model shows that the expectations of a devaluation under the subsequent new government may drive up country risk premium under the first government. Sovereign spreads in Argentina in 2001 are used to illustrate the argument.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Journal or Publication Title:	Revista de Economía Política de Buenos Aires
Publisher:	Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la Universidad de Buenos Aires
Official Date:	November 2008
Dates:	Date Event November 2008 Published
Volume:	Vol.1
Number:	No.3-4
Number of Pages:	13
Page Range:	pp. 33-45
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Funder:	Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
Grant number:	RES-051-27-0125, RES-165-25-0006, RES-156-25-0032
Related URLs:	Publisher

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