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The potential impacts of climate change on diseases affecting strawberries and the UK strawberry industry
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Calleja, Eman J. (2011) The potential impacts of climate change on diseases affecting strawberries and the UK strawberry industry. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
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WRAP_THESIS_Calleja_2011.pdf - Submitted Version Download (11Mb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=b2565923~S1
Abstract
The impact of climate change on plant disease is an important concern for
agriculture. Tools from natural and social science are used in this interdisciplinary
study in an innovative way to assess potential impacts on the UK strawberry sector.
Records of agricultural statistics and disease incidence covering a 90-year period
were analysed to study agricultural change and the past influence of disease on the
sector. Future change in potential disease incidence was then modelled for three of
the most common diseases by building probabilistic projections for 2020 to 2080
using the UKCP09 scenarios. Using these disease scenarios, data were collected from
strawberry growers, through a national survey and case study work in two
contrasting areas of strawberry production, covering around 40% of the UK sector.
A number of major outcomes were obtained. The introduction of polytunnels was
seen as the most important influence on change in the sector, tripling crop yields and
reducing the climatic impact on yield variability. Disease was found to vary spatially
and temporally throughout the country, emphasizing the need for development of
resistant cultivars, use of pesticides and a change in cultivation methods. Changes in
future disease incidence were predicted for all three pathogens, with a high degree of
spatial variation. The outcome suggests that the UK Strawberry sector may be
vulnerable, not only to the impacts of plant disease, which has affected both the
distribution of the sector throughout the UK and profitability of some of the
businesses, but especially to pressures arising from other factors such as labour and
decreasing profit margins. When coupling these with important policy changes such
as the change in the EU Pesticides Directive, a challenging picture emerges for the
future of the sector in the UK. Lesson learned from this sector may be applicable to
other sectors.
Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) | ||||
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Subjects: | S Agriculture > SB Plant culture | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Strawberries -- Diseases and pests -- Environmental aspects, Strawberries -- Climatic factors, Climatic changes | ||||
Official Date: | February 2011 | ||||
Dates: |
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Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||
Theses Department: | School of Life Sciences | ||||
Thesis Type: | PhD | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Mills, Peter ; Ilbery, Brian W. ; Spence, N. J. (Nicola J.) ; Mead, Andrew | ||||
Sponsors: | Great Britain. Dept. for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) ; Great Britain. Food and Environment Research Agency (FERA) | ||||
Extent: | xxxv, 322 leaves : ill., charts | ||||
Language: | eng |
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