Denrell, Jerker, Fang, Christina and Zhao, Zhanyun (2013) Inferring superior capabilities from sustained superior performance : a bayesian analysis. Strategic Management Journal, Volume 34 (Number 2). pp. 182-196. doi:10.1002/smj.2001 ISSN 0143-2095.

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Abstract

To what extent can one infer that superior capabilities are driving sustained superior performance? Modeling performance as some combination of differences in capabilities and processes of cumulative advantage, we argue that a Bayesian framework in which decision makers take into account the differences in cumulative advantage provides for a correct inference. We show, using both simulated and real performance data, that the Bayesian method gives rise to estimates relevant for the inference problem. The estimates also illustrate why a firm with superior performance during a longer period can be less likely to possess superior capabilities than a firm with superior performance during a shorter period. Our work has implications for the origins of competitive advantages and for organization learning in strategy research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Journal or Publication Title:	Strategic Management Journal
Publisher:	John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
ISSN:	0143-2095
Official Date:	February 2013
Dates:	Date Event February 2013 Published
Volume:	Volume 34
Number:	Number 2
Page Range:	pp. 182-196
DOI:	10.1002/smj.2001
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access

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