The Library
Density nowcasts and model combination : nowcasting Euro-area GDP growth over the 2008-9 recession
Tools
Tools
Tools
Mazzi, Gian Luigi, Mitchell, James and Montana, Gaetana (2014) Density nowcasts and model combination : nowcasting Euro-area GDP growth over the 2008-9 recession. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 76 (Number 2). pp. 233-256. doi:10.1111/obes.12015 ISSN 0305-9049.
Research output not available from this repository.
Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/obes.12015
Abstract
Combined density nowcasts for quarterly Euro-area GDP growth are produced based on the real-time performance of component models. Components are distinguished by their use of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’, aggregate and disaggregate, indicators. We consider the accuracy of the density nowcasts as within-quarter indicator data accumulate. We find that the relative utility of ‘soft’ indicators surged during the recession. But as this instability was hard to detect in real-time it helps, when producing density nowcasts unknowing any within-quarter ‘hard’ data, to weight the different indicators equally. On receipt of ‘hard’ data for the second month in the quarter better calibrated densities are obtained by giving a higher weight in the combination to ‘hard’ indicators.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative Title: | |||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0305-9049 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | April 2014 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
|
||||||||
| Volume: | Volume 76 | ||||||||
| Number: | Number 2 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 233-256 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1111/obes.12015 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
