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Subjective and ex post forecast uncertainty : US inflation and output growth
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Clements, Michael P. (2012) Subjective and ex post forecast uncertainty : US inflation and output growth. Working Paper. Coventry: Economics Department, University of Warwick. Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS), Volume 2012 (Number 995). (Unpublished)
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Text (Working paper)
WRAP_Clements_twerp_995.pdf - Other Download (556Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/resear...
Abstract
Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their expost performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconÖdent at horizons of a year
or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons.
Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory | ||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Inflation (Finance) -- Mathematical models, Inflation (Finance) -- United States, Macroeconomics -- Mathematical models, Economic forecasting, Economic indicators, Economic development -- United States | ||||
Series Name: | Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS) | ||||
Publisher: | Economics Department, University of Warwick | ||||
Place of Publication: | Coventry | ||||
Official Date: | 2012 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Volume 2012 | ||||
Number: | Number 995 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 29 | ||||
Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) |
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