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Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza

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Black, Andrew J., House, Thomas A., Keeling, Matthew James and Ross, Joshua V. (2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of Royal Society. Interface, Volume 10 (Number 81). Article no. 20121019. doi:10.1098/rsif.2012.1019 ISSN 1742-5689.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/​rsif.2012.1019

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Abstract

Antiviral treatment offers a fast acting alternative to vaccination; as such it is viewed as a first-line of defence against pandemic influenza in protecting families and households once infection has been detected. In clinical trials, antiviral treatments have been shown to be efficacious in preventing infection, limiting disease and reducing transmission, yet their impact at containing the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm outbreak was limited. To understand this seeming discrepancy, we develop a general and computationally efficient model for studying household-based interventions. This allows us to account for uncertainty in quantities relevant to the 2009 pandemic in a principled way, accounting for the heterogeneity and variability in each epidemiological process modelled. We find that the population-level effects of delayed antiviral treatment and prophylaxis mean that their limited overall impact is quantitatively consistent (at current levels of precision) with their reported clinical efficacy under ideal conditions. Hence, effective control of pandemic influenza with antivirals is critically dependent on early detection and delivery ideally within 24 h.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology
Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Research Centres > Molecular Organisation and Assembly in Cells (MOAC)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Antiviral agents, Epidemiology, Influenza -- Research
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Royal Society. Interface
Publisher: The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN: 1742-5689
Official Date: 2013
Dates:
DateEvent
2013Published
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 81
Page Range: Article no. 20121019
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.1019
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 22 June 2016
Date of first compliant Open Access: 22 June 2016
Funder: Australian Research Council (ARC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) , Wellcome Trust (London, England)
Grant number: DP110102893 (ARC)

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