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Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza
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Black, Andrew J., House, Thomas A., Keeling, Matthew James and Ross, Joshua V. (2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of Royal Society. Interface, Volume 10 (Number 81). Article no. 20121019. doi:10.1098/rsif.2012.1019 ISSN 1742-5689.
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WRAP_House_J. R. Soc. Interface-2013-Black-.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike. Download (973Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2012.1019
Abstract
Antiviral treatment offers a fast acting alternative to vaccination; as such it is viewed as a first-line of defence against pandemic influenza in protecting families and households once infection has been detected. In clinical trials, antiviral treatments have been shown to be efficacious in preventing infection, limiting disease and reducing transmission, yet their impact at containing the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm outbreak was limited. To understand this seeming discrepancy, we develop a general and computationally efficient model for studying household-based interventions. This allows us to account for uncertainty in quantities relevant to the 2009 pandemic in a principled way, accounting for the heterogeneity and variability in each epidemiological process modelled. We find that the population-level effects of delayed antiviral treatment and prophylaxis mean that their limited overall impact is quantitatively consistent (at current levels of precision) with their reported clinical efficacy under ideal conditions. Hence, effective control of pandemic influenza with antivirals is critically dependent on early detection and delivery ideally within 24 h.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Research Centres > Molecular Organisation and Assembly in Cells (MOAC) |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Antiviral agents, Epidemiology, Influenza -- Research | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Royal Society. Interface | ||||
| Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||
| ISSN: | 1742-5689 | ||||
| Official Date: | 2013 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Volume 10 | ||||
| Number: | Number 81 | ||||
| Page Range: | Article no. 20121019 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rsif.2012.1019 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 22 June 2016 | ||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 22 June 2016 | ||||
| Funder: | Australian Research Council (ARC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) , Wellcome Trust (London, England) | ||||
| Grant number: | DP110102893 (ARC) |
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